Is the stock market over heating?

A question about : Is the stock market over heating?

Now it has reached over 67000, I am wondering, as are others others, is it yet yet another meaningless bubble? The real economy is still going nowhere. I can see, with low interest rates, that people may choose to pile in but I am yet to be convinced that it has any sustainability.

Apart from a bit in S and S isas, we have decided to surrender all our investments this coming week. Having been caught up in two crashes in the past, I don`t feel confident that we should still be involved.

It is certainly difficult in these times to find any real yield, in fact we will put the money aside and review later.

Just wondered what other folk think about where we are going regarding the UK stock market.

Best answers:

• I am going to consider selling at 8000 - 8500. Inflation adjusted its a modest target nowhere near its all time adjusted high.
• If it had reached 67000 I would say yes
  I take the view that nothing is really going to change in the foreseeable future, world economies seem intent holding the status quo balancing things here and there and churning out QE.
  I don't see stimulus/low interest rates being withdrawn here any time soon.
  Banking is under micro management in many countries.
  Like you I have made some losses in the past luckily they have recovered - it is me that may run out of time if there was to be a big correction. Wouldn't be surprised to see some flat lining.
• I reckon a fair inflation adjusted level for the FTSE is 7864. This is based on historical data corrected for RPI. May be wrong for all sorts of reasons, but there you go
• Just watched the Bankers programme on BBC I Player - it's all about your understanding of "risk" - people basically gambling billions on jackshit - scary stuff
• If you take account of inflation, ftse lost 40% of it's value between 2000-2012.
  Cant post link, google 'Over the past 12 years the FTSE 100 index has lost 39% of its value' and you'll see graph.
  So ftse, dow not really at the highs but you may still think it's overbought for now.
• One would have to wonder whether calculating an inflation-adjusted level based on its all-time-high makes sense though - did the all-time-high represent good value (likely not).
  In saying that, the P/E levels at the moment look relatively cheap. It's difficult to judge how companies will manage when interest rates eventually do rise though - I suppose the smart ones, like Apple, are issuing bonds at the moment.
• In the last 2 crashes we had " triple peaks ". That is to say that at this stage the market went, down a bit repeated 3 time. Again I understand that has happened. If you consider the 30`s in the US the market recovered over a ten year period. We are yet to see the market rise to 7000 points.
  My main lway of thinking is we are still very much in a recession, part of a global economy going no where soon, struggling under debt, over inflated house prices, and a Europe that is under threat.
  Not saying I will not come back in, possibly will, I feel things are not being supported by the underlying economy.
• no guarantee of stock market today as it keeps on fluctuating everytime..
• The same question was being asked 6 months ago and it has risen 15% since then!
  I'd be more cautious putting in a lump sum but personally I think it will breach 7000 before there is a drop. The Dow and S&P have both broken new records so no reason why the FTSE shouldn't too. In fact I think the FTSE250 has already broken its long term high.
• Strangest bull market ever - where are the bulls? It's more a case of people finding excuses to hold equities.
  Nobody's talking up the prospects for the economy, which are still pretty dire.
  People aren't buying growth stocks. Everybody's talking about defensive shares.
  M&As? Rights issues? IPOs? All scarce.
  Companies announcing ambitious expansion plans? Nah.
  Companies have propped up their dividends by retrenching, cutting costs, cutting back to core business. Marketing budgets cut, well there aren't any customers anyway. R&D? Forget it.
  Dividends are very nice, but companies also need to invest their profits and their energies in their futures.
• I love Adam Hamilton https://www.zealllc.com/2013/spxtopex.htm
  He sums this market up far better than I could. Read this if you are thinking of going into the market now. He has the greed sentiment spot on. There is just so much bullishness about that when the selling starts it is going to be nasty.
• It will keep on rising until the next economic shock, but we can't tell when, and the more it has risen the more it will fall.