Scottish independence

A question about : Scottish independence

What views do forum members have on the markets reaction to a YES or NO vote.

Best answers:

• My view is that we will see how they react to the vote. I cba speculating.
• Markets hate uncertainty and a Yes vote will create that. It won't be clear for some time how a split will be implemented (e.g. currency, EU membership) and what effect it will have on businesses. While that process is going on I would expect volatility and nervous markets, continuing until all the details have been worked out.
• I doubt it'll have much effect tbh, the FTSE100 is actually quite internationally spread. Probably will just affect smaller companies that are reliant on Scotland, of which none spring to mind.
• The issue may be of importance to people in Scotland but it has very little, if any relevance for global stock markets which will trundle on without a blip whether the vote is yae or nay.
• Does anybody have a view about how bank savings guarantees will work if there is independence and will there be an exchange rate issue in that event?
• i agree with reaper - it will cause volatility. How can you say scotland independence will have no effect on global markets! - we are talking about splitting up the UK - a global power and centre of the financial industry!
  i think its been largely ignored for quite a while - mainly as the expected result was an overwhelming 'no' - so no impact. But now, its a closer run game - i think worries will start to settle in. Im considering selling a number of stocks and closing positions ahead of the vote.
• I think a No vote will not have much effect, but a Yes would hit UK shares - I have cutt back my UK exposure just in case.
• I wonder how much its surpressing the market at the moment, UK smaller company funds have been flat for 6 months, FTSE bouncing between 6600-6800.
  Personally im hoping for a small bounce and updward trend in UK markets post Sept 18th?
• I don't think there'll be any effect at all.
  But a 'No' vote is going to cost us all a fortune if we have to go along with Cameron's all-advised bribe (sorry, promise) of 'devo max' as a reward.
• I think it's a bit simplistic to suggest that the outcome of the vote won't matter to the markets. It may already be priced in to the gambles investments of the larger investors, but surely a 'Yes' vote would see a fall, with a 'No' vote seeing a far smaller rise?
  As a buyer, I'd be happy to see a Yes vote
• If it's true that UK GDP is "better together" and a "no to independence" vote removes the uncertainty about Scotland maybe dropping the pound, that should be a small positive for GBP as a currency. So rather than worrying about which equities to tilt towards, I might go "long sterling" against dollars and/or Euro with a cheeky spreadbet or two.
  Of course, by the third week of September there will have been more uk, us, europe interest rate meetings and other economic indicators that could have a bigger effect over the time period. So I might leave it until nearer the time before thinking about it further. I already have some money on No at the bookies which I don't want to add to without higher quality polls data, but an FX rate punt might hedge the effect of a strengthened pound on my USD cash and investments, and I'm generally bullish on the pound anyway.
• Haha - I had forgotten that you could bet on almost anything
• turnout under 80%--- NO win --Scotland 10/11
  turnout over 80%-----YES win--Scotland 10/1
  ladcroakes
  biggest ever turnout referendum bill on home rule 67%
• I don't think it'll have too much impact FTSE wise, but I'm interested in what it'll do to bond prices.
• A transfer of head offices south of the border will be extremely positive for the UK.
  Oil is traded in $ so has no direct impact on the UK.
• Got to be some reaction to a yes, but if they vote for independence, and then refuse to accept any share of the national debt, then I can't see world markets having much trust in a new Scottish government's promises or bonds, after refusing responsibility for historic liabilities, especially if financials also relocate to London.